The Mike Trout, Bryce Harper comparison got old fast, it seems to me. What is there to compare, really?
One bats right; the other left. One plays center field; the other right. One is a choir boy; the other, well, isn't. One is the best player in baseball. The other one isn't.
One is the a free agent in November of 2018. The other one isn't. And one will be playing his home games in Southern California come 2019. That one is Trout.
The idea that the Dodgers are biding their time, waiting to pounce on a Harper free agent contract is silliness. I'd call it wishful thinking, but I'm not sure exactly who has that particular wish. But you can forget about it right now. Harper days won't be here again in 2019.
Here's why:
1. The contract demands. Harper made headlines with his 10-year, $400 million ask in December, and while we can chalk that up to posturing to some degree, at least we have an idea of the man's thinking. $400 mil. To which I say, "bite me." Eight and 10-year deals do not work out well for the signing club. Bryce Harper is not going to be the guy to break that mold. He's just not.
2. Clayton Kershaw. L.A.'s ace can opt out of the final two years of his contract (leaving $70,142,858 on the table) following the 2018 season. If anyone is getting a record-setting contract from the Dodgers that winter, it's Kersh.
3. Lefty-heavy lineup. While the Dodgers weak hitting versus left-handers in 2016 may have been a one-year thing the team continues to be LHB-heavy, with more of the same coming down the pike. Any forecast three years out must be taken with a grain of salt, but Corey Seager and Joc Pederson should continue as mainstays for the foreseeable future. Cody Bellinger should be the regular first basemen by 2019. Willie Calhoun may be the regular second baseman by that time and Alex Verdugo may be a regular outfielder. Lefty swingers all.
I'm not suggesting taking a pass on Harper just because you're already stacked with LHBs, but it is a variable, especially considering the other items on this list.
4. Manny Machado. This is big if, but if Los Angeles goes big two winters from now, and decides to extend Kershaw and sign an expensive free agent, then Machado is your man.
Yes, Justin Turner will have a year remaining on his four-year $64 million deal signed in December. And yes, we all love JT, but he'll be a 35-year-old third baseman with a potentially movable $16 million contract. Machado will be 26 with a chance to be the greatest third baseman in Dodgers history, and that includes Brooklyn and Los Angeles.
Do your own compare and contrast. Harper vs. Machado. They're both 23 and have played from 2012-2016. Harper's 162-game average is .279/.382/.501/.883, with 30 home runs and 82 RBIs. He's at 21.5 in WAR.
Machado's 162-game is .284/.333/.477/.811 with 28 and 83. And 24.4 WAR. You can chalk the difference in OBP and OPS to walks. Harper has 387 lifetime, Machado 176. Harper has a Rookie of the Year award and an MVP. Machado has two Gold Gloves.
5. Conclusion. All-Star third basemen are harder to come by than their right field counterparts. We don't know what Machado has in mind for his free agent contract but Harper wants $400 mil, which if it isn't a physical impossibility for Los Angeles, it needs to be.
If the Dodgers are going whole hog for Kersh and another guy in the winter of 2018-2019, Machado makes more sense than Harper.
If the Dodgers are signing one high-priced superstar that winter, and it's not Kershaw -- or he opts out with the intention of going elsewhere -- well, I don't even want to finish the sentence.
And remember, glove conquers all.
