You have a No. 1 seed that lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tourney, a Michigan team that is streaking Fab Five style and the team with the longest winning streak in the NCAA right now. So, where's your value picks in the Midwest? And is there a team here that can truly win the tournament
We turned to the staff of VegasInsiders.com for advice on how to break down the Midwest region.
YOUR TOP TWO SEEDS
Kansas is the No. 1 seed here, despite that aforementioned loss to TCU in the Big 12 quarters. That was without the best freshman in the country, Josh Jackson. Can one player make that much of a difference? The tournament committee certainly felt so, not penalizing the Jayhawks while knocking down other teams who underwhelmed in their conference tourneys. Bill Self's team has possibly the toughest path to the Final Four of any No. 1 seed. They could have teams like Purdue, Vermont, Iowa State and Nevada in their path.
Louisville is the No. 2 seed here and are a 20-point favorite to start the tourney against No. 15 Jacksonville State. How much do you value defense in the Big Dance? That's the question you're going to have to ask yourself with the Cardinals. They are outstanding defenders but have let in spots down the stretch against North Carolina and Wake Forest. Plus, they could face the winner of Michigan and Oklahoma State in the second round -- either of which could take them out.
BETTING TRENDS TO KEEP IN MIND
You have to feel bad for the No. 3 seed Oregon Ducks. They lost their best player, 6-10 senior Chris Boucher, to a season-ending injury in the Pac-12 tournament. So, how you going to handicap this team now? Oregon is a 14-point favorite over No. 14 Iona but again, this feels like more of a spread based on the past than the present. Can the Ducks rally? I just don't see it. If they survive Iona, Creighton or Rhode Island will take them out.
And keep an eye on North Carolina Central. Yes, they need to beat UC Davis to have the right to lose to Kansas, but the Eagles have been a bettors' paradise this year. They are 6-0 against the spread but far from that skilled at the free-throw line (63.1 percent) and behind the arc (29.1 percent, third-worst in Division I). But they shreaded spreads against Ohio State (69-63 loss as a 24-point dog) and LSU (70-66 road loss as a 10.5-point dog).
SLEEPER FIRST ROUND TEAM WORTH WATCHING
I'd love to pick Iona here, and if you watched their path to the tourney, you know the Gaels have a stud in Jordan Washington and a wild card in guard Rickey McGill. If you have the guts to make this pick, it's likely the most realistic 3-14 upset in the field.
Rhode Island should not be a No. 11 seed. They are a 1-point underdog to No. 6 Creighton to start the week, but I not only like them to beat the Bluejays, but to dispense of Oregon.
The line is way too small for Iowa State-Nevada. Take the 6.5 while you can. The Cyclones will win this game by 20.
OTHER EARLY LINES WE LIKE
Michigan State is a No. 9 seed up against No. 8 Miami. The Spartans are over-seeded here after losing three of its last four games and four of its last seven. We're trying to find the signature win that gets Sparty beyond a 12 seed and we're just not seeing it beyond a midseason win over Wisconsin. Yes, Jim Larranaga's Hurricanes are young but late season wins at Virginia and home versus Duke show us the potential. Take that one point all day. This feels like a double-digit Miami win on paper.
THE UPSET WATCH WORTH WATCHING
Is Purdue 8.5 points better than Vermont? The Catamounts have won 21 straight games, the longest streak in the land. But that's all against the America (L)East. Out of conference, they lost 68-5o to South Carolina and 81-69 at Butler. Vermont is 11th in Division I in points allowed while the Boilermakers are top 35 in points scored. It comes down to whether UVM can neutralize Caleb Swanigan. If they can take Purdue out of their game early, they could easily cover and win a low-scoring upset.
Also, as hot as Michigan has been, Oklahoma State has a star in Jawun Evans and great supporting cast in Jeffrey Carroll and Leyton Hammonds. The Wolverines may have had their run too soon here, and the Cowboys just barely feel like an underdog here on paper.
But, here's an interesting nugget: Since 2007, nine of 10 teams that captured the Big 10 tournament title have advanced to at least the Sweet Sixteen. The only squad not to reach the second weekend was Michigan State, who was knocked out by No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee State last season.
FUTURES WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO
Louisville is a 14/1 bet to win it all, and examining their path, that feels way too generous.
Instead, I'm eyeing Iowa State at 65/1. If the Cyclones can get past Kansas, they have the depth and skills to survive the gauntlet and the pressure here.
