BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

NCAA Bracket Predictions 2017: Vegas Pros' Picks To Win the South Region

Following
This article is more than 7 years old.

It is by far the deepest bracket of the tourney, that one region that always feels overloaded each year. You have a No. 1 seed who didn't win their conference tourney, a No. 2 seed that is the analytical favorite to win it all, a No. 3 with the most prolific shooter in college hoops and a 30-win team that is once again disrespected beyond belief.

We turned to the staff of VegasInsiders.com for advice on how to break down the South region.

YOUR TOP TWO SEEDS

North Carolina is your No. 1 seed here and we're still trying to figure out how. If a team can't even solve a team in their own conference, how do they get a top seed? The Tar Heels lost to the 18-16 Indiana Hoosiers early in the season. Yes, this is a deep team, but we're just not seeing the title momentum here.

Kentucky is the No. 2 seed here and John Calipari's team is once again trending strong heading into the brackets. After losing three of four in the midseason, the 'Cats won their final 11 games. Kentucky dominated a lackluster SEC and did not have as many signature wins as we're used to seeing. Yes, they beat UNC, 103-100, but they lost to UCLA, Louisville, Kansas and Florida. But when you have a dynamo star like guard Malik Monk, a top-5 offense (86.1 points per game) and a team that attacks the boards (40.2 RPG, 12th in Division I), it's easy to see a deep run here.

BETTING TRENDS TO KEEP IN MIND

How bad did the NCAA tournament committee fail on Wichita State? The 30-4 Shockers were a No. 5 seed to many but landed at a No. 10 seed in the South. Vegas is the great equalizer, as they opened WSU as a 7.5-point favorite against No. 7 Dayton.

Yes, the 5-12 game always provides drama, but we rarely see the point spreads call out the No. 5 seed as a fraud. That's what's happening to Minnesota, as the Golden Gophers will be lucky to go in to their matchup with Middle Tennessee State as a favorite.

SLEEPER FIRST ROUND TEAM WORTH WATCHING

It's rare to call a No. 7 seed a sleeper in the first round, but that's where the Dayton Flyers find themselves. The A-10 regular season champ lost to Davidson in the tourney quarters, a loss that had many wondering what to make of this team. Dayton also doesn't have that that signature win to make you get behind them for any length of time in March, but their competition in the A-10 was far better than anything Wichita State faced.

The Shockers played no one in the MVC, lost to Louisville and Michigan State in their only real out-of-conference tests. So to us, Dayton is a smart pick here.

How is Vanderbilt in the tournament when they lost 71-48 to Middle Tennessee State? The Blue Raiders played VCU tough, beat a 20-win Ole Miss team and are ranked 21st in points allowed. Everyone is talking up Wichita State in this bracket, but for me, Middle Tennessee could get to the Sweet 16.

OTHER EARLY LINES WE LIKE

Statistically, Butler is an incredibly underwhelming team. They rank 327th in rebounds per game. We didn't even know there were 327 teams to be ranked against.

Yes, the Bulldogs could get hot. But, the 26-6 Winthrop Eagles are an up-tempo team that played a really weak schedule. It's difficult to truly match these teams up fairly, but on paper, 11 points feels like an easy cover for Winthrop.

Also, given Kent State's rebounding prowess, it's hard to see them losing by 20 to Kentucky.

THE UPSET WATCH WORTH WATCHING

We've discussed the real upset potential here. But I'll take Middle Tennessee a step farther. I like them to take down Butler to reach the Sweet 16. And this team has the makeup to give UNC fits. We just don't see the Tar Heels as the lock that so many Sunday night talkers are talking them up to be. This is a loaded bracket, but if the Blue Raiders can slow down teams to play their pace, they could make a Cinderella run.

FUTURES WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO

So, about those analytics that favor Kentucky. ESPN did a fascinating breakdown of the characteristics that make a champion. It was the perfect example of manipulating numbers to tell a story. Kentucky, a 17/2 bet to win it all, checks so many boxes for the number crunchers. They are the only team that meets all this criteria: the last 13 champs have won 25 games or morel; 22 of the last 23 champs had an RPI of 17 or higher; 14 of the last 15 champs were top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency; and 14 of the last 15 champs have an offensive rebound rate above 30 percent.

Follow all that? If you believe in that, then the Wildcats are a strong bet at 17/2.

How much do you believe in the magic of Lonzo Ball? If you're as sure of this star as his father is, then 12/1 odds to win it all is a steal for you.

Follow me on Twitter