Confirmed: Spider-Man Remains In MCU For At Least 3 More Films

What started as a limited trade-off between Marvel Studios and Sony for Spider-Man to appear in one team-up film and one solo tie-in picture has expanded to include additional films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It's been a busy few days for the web-head, with three terrific new posters and a brand new trailer dropping since Friday. Let's look at what the future really has in store for Spidey, plus check out the posters and new trailer...

After a brief supporting turn in Captain America: Civil War last year, actor Tom Holland's new version of Spidey returns to the big screen this July in Spider-Man: Homecoming along with Robert Downey Jr.'s beloved Tony Stark (aka Iron Man). That two-film original deal was expanded to include Avengers: Infinity War, as we learned last month. And now comes word of yet another film keeping Spider-Man in Marvel's shared superhero world, making three total confirmed upcoming films featuring the character within the MCU from this year through 2019.

At CinemaCon last night, Producer Amy Pascal confirmed a second Spider-Man solo movie -- i.e. a sequel to Spider-Man: Homecoming -- is planned within the existing MCU. Pascal also noted the future of the wall-crawler remains uncertain after that. The solo sequel is slated for release in 2019.

However, stories in multiple outlets claiming Pascal said Spider-Man will depart the MCU after the solo sequel are false. Pascal's actual remarks noted that the deal between Sony and Marvel Studios had been extended to include additional films, that all sides expect these movies to be very lucrative, that the deal was remarkable and unique in cinema, and that it remains to be seen whether any further deals will be struck for additional crossover between the studios.

But let's be realistic about this, it would be insane and practically business suicide for anyone involved to end this relationship. Here's why...

The placement of Spider-Man within the MCU is going to pay off huge for the solo Spider-Man movies. While he certainly brings great added value to the Marvel team-up pictures -- a point that will actually be more pronounced after the presumed success of his solo movie featuring a team-up with Iron Man -- the most obvious payoff is going to be apparent in the solo Spider-Man films. A little-appreciated fact of the Spider-Man franchise is that Spider-Man 3 is the only movie that enjoyed an increase over the previous film's box office...

1. Spider-Man (2002) — $821 million
2. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — $783 million ($38 million decline)
3. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — $890 million ($107 million increase)
4. Amazing Spider-Man (2012) — $758 million ($132 million decline)
5. Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — $709 million ($49 million decline)

Spider-Man: Homecoming appears likely to be the first film since Sam Raimi's trilogy-ending outing to enjoy an increase in revenue from the prior release. And nobody seriously has any doubt the reason will be the fact Spider-Man has finally joined the MCU.

Tom Holland's contract is for six movie appearances as Spider-Man, including three solo Spider-Man franchise pictures and three separate films. Holland confirmed this last year in an interview with Aaron Couch at The Hollywood Reporter, saying:

“I’m unclear as to which movies, though. I do know I have 3 Spider-Man [additional] movies and 3 solo movies contracted.”

So, with Avengers: Infinity War in May 2018, Holland will have fulfilled one of his solo Spidey film commitments (Spider-Man: Homecoming) plus two of his other appearances (Captain America: Civil War and Infinity War). That would mean he has two more Spider-Man films on his contract, plus one more appearance as Spider-Man in another film. We know one of those two solo movies will still be within the MCU, making four of his appearances linked to the larger Marvel shared world.

What are the odds, then, that Sony would really release another Spider-Man film starring Tom Holland plus have him appear as Spidey in some other movie, without linking it to the MCU? Obviously, they could in theory release a third Spider-Man film in which they don't mention the MCU and let the audience assume it's still part of it but not really have a contracted tie-in or crossover. They could use the third "other movie" appearance to have Spider-Man show up in a Venom or Black Cat/Silver Sable film. But would they do that, assuming -- as we all reasonably should -- that the MCU tie-ins are going swimmingly and help boost the box office prospects of the solo Spider-Man movies via those MCU crossovers? No, the most likely scenario is that Spider-Man appears in the fourth Avengers movie and has a third solo film with another MCU crossover and team-up.

Disney is already banking billion dollar box office with their Avengers films and even the solo-but-team-up franchises like Captain America's most recent release. The studio looks likely to top $800-900 million with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 this summer, and Thor: Ragnarok appears likewise destined to score a new box office high for the God of Thunder's own series later this year. My point is, Marvel no doubt would love to keep Spidey swinging into the team-up movies and to let various Avengers make appearances over in the Spider-Man franchise. But the blunt truth is, this deal boosts the value of Spider-Man's brand significantly on the big screen, and will probably help the web-slinger's solo films hit box office heights it hasn't seen in years.

With new leadership imminent at Sony, it's unlikely the studio would risk hamstringing the Spider-Man franchise after all the work it's taken to finally make this deal happen and boost the brand's box office so that the films are seeing increases instead of the mostly consistent trend downward. While it's doubtful that a third Spider-Man movie with Holland would see any sort of huge problem if they simply declined to make a deal to continue the MCU link and instead had Spider-Man go totally solo without mention of the other Marvel heroes, it's also so easy to imagine another cameo or supporting turn by some MCU characters that would easily propel that third film much higher than it could otherwise climb.

No matter how successful that third Spider-Man solo movie might be, everyone will look at the final box office number and wonder "how much higher might it have been if Captain America or Captain Marvel had shown up?" And as for the other appearance he has to make, if it's not in another Avengers movie as seems likely, then everyone will wonder "how much higher would the other Spider-Man movies perform if they road the coattails of yet another Avengers film?"

The point is, those questions will inevitably arise if the Sony-Marvel Studios deal is ended, and the answer to those questions wouldn't reflect kindly on whomever was responsible for ending the deal. Sony, Marvel, and the producers have all done a fantastic job so far making this deal, rebooting Spider-Man, extending the deal, and marketing the whole thing. It's the first of its kind, and it's going to be a huge success. There is no reason to think it's in anyone's interest, then, to let it lapse. The people involved are simply too smart and too interested in seeing the character, franchise, and deal succeed to let that happen.

Of course there will have to be more negotiations, but whatever needs to happen to make it work, I'm confident both sides will figure it out. And for now, we know we're going to see Tom Holland's Spider-Man continue to remain part of the MCU for several more films through 2020 (Homecoming, Infinity War, and a second solo movie).

Box office figures and tallies based on data via Box Office Mojo, Rentrak, and TheNumbers.

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