If the season ended today, Michael Conforto and Aaron Judge would be All-Stars, top-10 MVP finishers and — in Judge’s case — the AL Rookie of the Year.
Funny, because had spring training concluded a week earlier, both might have ended up at Triple-A.
A few key Yankees decision makers wondered if Judge would be better served with another 100-200 at-bats for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, just to reaffirm the changes to his swing and approach were real. Plus, Aaron Hicks had a strong enough spring to justify being the regular right fielder.
It was not until March 30 — the day the Yanks played their final spring game in Florida — that manager Joe Girardi named Judge the right fielder.
And it wasn’t until three days later — Opening Day just 24 hours away — that Conforto was told he made the Mets … as a reserve … and only because Juan Lagares had not healed from an oblique injury.
Judge entered the weekend second in the AL in OPS (1.098) behind only Mike Trout. Conforto (1.123) was tied for second with Bryce Harper, behind Freddie Freeman — who soon won’t have enough plate appearances to qualify, as he is out with a wrist injury.
They have gone from near demotion to great debate: Who ya got, Conforto or Judge?
I asked scouts and front office executives: Which of the New York outfielders they would take for the next five years? And while I was on the subject, I asked the same question about the three big college position players taken in the 2014 draft — Conforto, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner.
Conforto vs. Judge
Does this work as a copout? Fourteen people responded. Seven picked Conforto. Seven picked Judge. Just about everyone said it was a tough call, and they would love to have either.
Those who favored Conforto saw a swing with fewer holes and a chance to sustain that moving forward, notably because he is not 6-foot-7 and 285 pounds.
“It is very close,” an NL talent evaluator said. “I think [Conforto’s] swing/body probably gives him a better chance at consistency/durability.”
An AL executive: “I’m really a big fan of Judge, his power and what I read about his makeup. But I think the left-handed bat with less power, more well-rounded approach is more impactful over five years. Judge might have the best single season of the two, but I would be on Conforto more, mostly because he is harder to pitch to.”
Those who favored Judge cited how unique his power is, how much he has adapted in a short major league period and his character.
“I would take Judge, but looking at Conforto/Judge, it’s really neck-and-neck,” an AL executive said. “The reason I would lean Judge is because he offers something more unique. The ominous power has more of a tendency to weigh into opposing pitchers, and I think he could help hitters in front of him/behind him more than Conforto can. In a vacuum, they are a toss-up for me.”
An AL scout: “I really like Conforto, and it is a difficult call. I am more comfortable with Conforto as a proven hitter that knows the strike zone and is doing as expected once he adjusted to the majors. Judge, on the other hand, won’t hit with the same quality, but the power is elite, and I think that will make a big difference in his value.
“He will drive in runs, might hit 40-plus and will be one of MLB’s ultimate attractions. I still think he is going to struggle through parts of this year, but his plate discipline has improved immensely since late last season. My gut tells me to take the better hitter, but my heart chooses the big power.”
Conforto vs. Schwarber vs. Turner
How the sands have shifted. Conforto and Schwarber came up during the 2015 season and helped the Mets and Cubs, respectively, reach the playoffs. Then in 2016, Schwarber blew out his knee three games into the schedule and missed the rest of the regular season. Conforto had a strong April and faded so badly he ended up back in Triple-A.
Turner came up during the season — playing center rather than his natural shortstop — to help the Nationals win the NL East. Schwarber made a near mythical earlier-than-expected return in the World Series to help the Cubs win it all.
In 2017, Schwarber and Turner are struggling and Conforto is thriving.
This emphasizes how much picking an order has changed and likely is to change again. In the present, though, 11 out of 13 went Turner first, Conforto second and Schwarber third — which is the opposite of how they were drafted (Schwarber fourth, Conforto 10th, Turner 13th). One voter had Conforto first, saying his defense is better than generally perceived, and projecting power and average for a long period. One picked Schwarber first, prioritizing his bat/makeup.
Like with Conforto-Judge, most respondents said they loved all three players. Those who took Turner first noted his positional value at short over corner outfielders, his athleticism and a well-rounded game. A 14th voter — an AL official — picked Conforto first as long as this was NL only, but said he would take Schwarber first if he ran an AL team.
This is why Schwarber mainly finished third in the voting — due to concern that he doesn’t have a true position and might be best situated as a DH.
“It is splitting hairs,” an NL official said. “I’d go Turner, Conforto, Schwarber because Turner with his premium defensive position and speed impacts the game in so many ways.”
An AL official: “I love Schwarber’s bat and makeup, and Conforto will be a good hitter for a long time, but Turner impacts the game in the middle of the field and is the best athlete of the three.”