Trying to predict the career trajectory of Tyson Jost

It’s impossible to know exactly what a team has in a prospect when they’re selected at 18 or 19 years of age. In fact, it’s pretty damn hard at any time until they’ve settled into a full-time role in whatever league they stick in. Despite this, Tyson Jost came into the Colorado Avalanche organization with enormous expectations, being heralded in his draft year as the next Jonathan Toews.

This was obviously good news for the mature youngster, who was being compared to the clutch-scoring natural leader who found immense success in Chicago from a young age. Since his BCHL draft year Jost has spent time in the NCAA and NHL...so, is he still tracking to be the next Toews?

Here the production and league of Jost and two comparables (one of which is Toews) between their draft-minus-1 year to their draft-plus-2 year (where Jost currently stands):

First of all, we see that Comparable #1 dominated Junior A a relative year earlier, but Jost’s points-per-game total in his draft year far exceeds both comparisons.

Looking next to their rookie NCAA seasons, all three players put up incredibly similar numbers. Comparable #1 scored more goals per game, but Comparable #2 scored about as often as Jost while adding more assists.

This is where the pre-NHL comparison has to end since both comparables returned to NCAA for a sophomore season (which seemed to groom them well for an immediate NHL impact) while Jost is set to make the Avs in 2017-18. But based on 3 seasons of numbers, these three players are incredibly similar scorers both in goals and assist totals. If we had to predict Jost’s production based on these comparables, I would expect the point totals of Comparable #1, and the goal totals of Comparable #2.

Time for the reveal...

Comparable #1: Jonathan Toews

Comparable #2: Paul Stastny

So yes, Jost is still tracking to perform up to the high standards set by fellow B.C. native Jonathan Toews but is also trending similarly to another two-way top centerman in Stastny. This means that I’m personally setting the bar for success at 25 goals and 30 assists for Jost this season, and I’m pretty confident that he will hit those totals. On the ice, Jost certainly looks like more of a scorer than Stastny, so his long-term offensive upside will more likely mirror Toews’ 30G-40A split than Stastny’s 20G-50A.

What do you think? Will our 2016 first-round pick be the next Toews? Stastny? Or is there another comparable we should use when drooling over his future with the Avs?